Business 12% growth in 2014, says Jewell

Business 12% growth in 2014, says Jewell

2013/11/22

After 4% growth in the first three quarters of the year, the semiconductor industry’s outlook for Q4 varies from flat to double-digit declines, says Bill Jewell’s Semiconductor Intelligence newsletter.

“TI, Broadcom, Infineon and Renesas all expect declines ranging from 7% to 10% based on the midpoint of their guidance. Intel, Qualcomm, ST and AMD guide toward flat or low single-digit growth,” writes Jewell.

Jewell estimates Micron’s growth at 30%.

When all is taken into account, Jewell’s prognosis for the year is up 5% or 6%.

“What will be semiconductor market growth in 2014?” asks Jewell. “We at Semiconductor Intelligence expect growth to accelerate from 2013 to 2014. One major factor driving the acceleration is the expectation of increasing global GDP growth in 2014.”

The IMF expects World GDP growth to accelerate from 2.9% in 2013 to 3.6% in 2014. Advanced economies are forecast to grow 2.0%, up from 1.2% in 2013.

The key drivers in advanced economies are the US, with GDP growth accelerating by one percentage point, and the Euro area, which should move from a 0.4% decline in 2013 to 1.0% growth in 2014.

Developing economies are projected to grow 5.1% in 2014, up from 4.5% in 2013.

Based on the IMF forecast of 3.6% GDP growth in 2014, the Semiconductor Intelligence forecasting model predicts semiconductor market growth of 12%.

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